Karol Nawrocki will probably be Poland’s subsequent president after he defeated Rafał Trzaskowski within the Polish presidential election on 1 June. Bartłomiej Kot writes that Nawrocki is more likely to promote nearer alignment with Donald Trump and a harder stance on each Ukraine and the EU.
Karol Nawrocki’s slender victory in Poland’s presidential election marks greater than only a change in management – it alerts a shift within the nation’s political structure that would reshape its European trajectory and transatlantic orientation.
The marketing campaign main as much as the vote was much less a contest of concepts than a conflict of private profiles. Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal, internationally identified Mayor of Warsaw, confronted off towards Nawrocki, a political outsider with a controversial previous and restricted public service expertise.
Beneath this private drama lay a deeper political confrontation – one which extends past celebration traces. It was a referendum on two visions for Poland: a European-facing democracy grounded in liberal values, and a sovereignty-driven challenge more and more formed by the wind of change delivered to Europe by the return of Donald Trump and the rising assertiveness of the far proper.
Turbulence forward
The stakes might hardly have been larger. In Poland’s semi-presidential system, the president wields appreciable affect over overseas affairs and nationwide safety. With Nawrocki now put in within the presidential palace, Poland is heading right into a turbulent interval of political cohabitation between Nawrocki and Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European authorities.
This cohabitation is unlikely to be cooperative. Nawrocki’s technique seems set: weaken the Tusk administration, gas public disillusionment with the ruling coalition, and pave the best way for early parliamentary elections. A reconfigured Sejm, led by Regulation and Justice (PiS) in coalition with the far-right Confederation celebration, is now not a far-fetched state of affairs.
On the worldwide stage, anticipate a combative posture towards Brussels and Berlin, and a more in-depth ideological alignment with Trump’s MAGA motion. In EU affairs, Nawrocki is more likely to undertake a confrontational tone, criticising the European Fee for allegedly favouring political opponents and framing migration and local weather coverage as infringements on nationwide sovereignty. The dormant Visegrád Group could also be revived beneath his management – not as a useful bloc, however as a symbolic platform for resisting deeper European integration.
Alignment with Trump
Guiding a lot of this method could also be Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, a former European Parliament Vice-President who has remodeled from a high European Individuals’s Get together member and a pro-European centrist into one in every of Brussels’ most vocal critics. His trajectory displays the broader ideological evolution of Poland’s right-wing institution – and will foreshadow Nawrocki’s personal coverage path.
Relations with Germany are additionally more likely to bitter. The problem of World Warfare II reparations – lengthy utilized by Regulation and Justice as a political cudgel – might resurface as a core theme. In the meantime, Germany’s rising defence funds could also be recast in home rhetoric as a latent menace – notably for older voters with robust historic reminiscences of German militarism.
On NATO, Nawrocki will seemingly keep Poland’s firmly anti-Russian stance, not least as a consequence of his personal symbolic worth – he’s needed by Moscow for ordering the removing of Soviet monuments throughout his time on the Institute of Nationwide Remembrance. But his engagement with the alliance will diverge from the present consensus in Brussels. He’ll search as a substitute to align Poland extra intently with a Trump-led United States, each ideologically and strategically.
Actually, this alignment carries no danger to Trump. Whereas Nawrocki appeals to American conservatives, US-Poland relations are firmly outlined by bipartisan strategic pursuits, corresponding to navy cooperation and funding in nuclear power. These ties endure no matter political shifts. The truth that US Homeland Safety Secretary Kristi Noem held cordial talks with Minister of the Inside Tomasz Siemoniak on the identical day she rallied behind Nawrocki on the Conservative Political Motion Convention (CPAC) speaks volumes.
A extra sceptical stance on Ukraine
The extra rapid tensions will play out domestically. Disputes over armed forces appointments and worldwide illustration are seemingly. Nawrocki may try to use tensions inside Tusk’s governing coalition, notably focusing on the agrarian Polish Individuals’s Get together (PSL), the place components might drift again towards Regulation and Justice in pursuit of future affect.
Overseas coverage towards Ukraine might additionally turn out to be a flashpoint. Within the remaining stretch of the marketing campaign, Nawrocki questioned Ukraine’s NATO ambitions – an obvious enchantment to far-right voters. Whether or not this was an opportunistic gesture or a real sign stays unclear.
However within the context of rising PiS-Confederation cooperation, a extra sceptical stance on Kyiv might harden. This is able to give Nawrocki house to criticise the Tusk authorities’s “softness” on Ukraine – particularly on historic reminiscence points such because the commemoration of the Volhynia bloodbath. Such ways might play nicely domestically, however they danger limiting Poland’s affect inside NATO and weakening its position in shaping the western response to Russia’s warfare of aggression.
A brand new section for Polish politics
The implications of the election outcome for Tusk are critical. The failure to safe the presidency will now be perceived as a strategic misstep – maybe even a turning level. If the federal government turns into slowed down by presidential vetoes and institutional impasse, requires early parliamentary elections will develop louder.
But amid the political rivalry between the 2 largest events, one other dynamic is quietly taking maintain: the rise of smaller events providing substantive coverage platforms, notably on points like housing, the inexperienced transition and social spending. The far-right Confederation has been the largest winner from this development thus far. Ought to early elections be known as, Regulation and Justice would nearly actually pivot additional towards this citizens, consolidating a brand new right-wing bloc formed by American-style political tropes and cultural battles.
Poland is getting into a brand new section. The nation has chosen a president who thrives on confrontation, not consensus. The approaching months will seemingly convey institutional friction, overseas coverage clashes and deepened polarisation. What emerges on the opposite facet might redefine Poland’s democratic construction – and its place within the European and transatlantic order.
Notice: This text provides the views of the writer, not the place of EUROPP – European Politics and Coverage or the London College of Economics. Featured picture credit score: Tomasz Warszewski / Shutterstock.com
