The UK and the EU have reached settlement on a post-Brexit “reset” to their relationship. Mitya Pearson and David Jeffery write that whereas there may be help within the UK for establishing nearer relations with the EU, there are main political obstacles to taking extra formidable steps like rejoining the one market.
Following the UK-EU summit on Monday, Britain is transferring nearer to the EU once more in a number of particular areas. Inevitably, such strikes are usually not far sufficient for some, who want to see a way more radical alignment between Britain and the EU. So why does the concept of Britain rejoining the customs union, single market and even the EU itself presently appear so unlikely to occur?
Help for rejoining
British politics is in one thing of a paradoxical scenario relating to public and elite opinion concerning the UK’s ongoing relationship with Europe. After Britain voted for Brexit in 2016, voters got here to have an overwhelmingly destructive evaluation of how the UK authorities had dealt with the negotiations and, as soon as the deal had been signed, they have been additionally fairly sceptical about what had been achieved.
Within the years since Britain left the EU, polling has proven that the general public are likely to suppose the influence of Brexit has been destructive throughout a variety of areas and there was a largely constant polling lead for the concept of rejoining the EU (versus staying out) since 2022. Since 2021, surveys have additionally repeatedly proven Britons, on stability, really feel that it was flawed to depart the EU.
All of the main figures within the present Labour authorities supported stay within the 2016 EU referendum. We performed polling of Westminster MPs elected on the 2024 common election, as a part of a just lately revealed report, and located {that a} clear majority of them would vote to rejoin the EU if there was one other referendum on the difficulty. MPs have been considerably extra supportive of this place than the general public (who additionally favoured the concept of rejoining when requested the identical query, at an analogous time).
Reopening divisions
There are, nevertheless, a number of highly effective explanation why a partial or full reversal of the Brexit course of appears to be like unlikely within the close to time period, despite the fact that politicians and the general public favour the concept. Whereas public opinion surveys present general help for rejoining the EU, there isn’t a proof that it is a salient concern. The EU doesn’t function among the many prime ten points dealing with the nation, as chosen by the general public, in Ipsos’ March 2025 Concern Index. Simply as the difficulty didn’t function in the identical index when David Cameron initially introduced the plan to have an EU referendum.
Through the Brexit negotiation course of, there was a widespread sense of public frustration and by late 2019, 70% of voters prompt they’d “Brexit fatigue”. Politicians might due to this fact be cautious of a possible backlash amongst voters if they’re seen to be re-opening a divisive episode in British politics.
The polling outcomes talked about right here basically requested politicians and voters concerning the thought of rejoining the EU in precept. If the coverage implications of concrete choices for a serious softening of Britain’s EU relations, comparable to accepting freedom of motion, have been extra extensively mentioned, they could begin to appear much less enticing. The interval since Britain left the EU has additionally coincided with difficult financial circumstances, so the general public’s views on Brexit are little question partly sure up with these, and in the event that they have been to vary, attitudes to EU membership may too.
Political calculations
When Keir Starmer took over as chief of the Labour Get together, a part of the strategy he took to recovering from the 2019 common election defeat was to just accept that Brexit was occurring and search to maneuver on from a debate that had alienated a major part of Labour’s voters. This fundamental calculation has continued to form the occasion’s strategy, at the same time as public opinion proof on what British voters consider Brexit has began to recommend that politicians might not must be so cautious about being essential of Brexit.
Moreover, lately, British political elites have turn into very targeted on fairly a slender set of voters: older, non-graduates residing exterior massive cities who had a bent to help Brexit in 2016. It is because voters with such traits are distributed fairly effectively throughout constituencies (whereas graduates who supported stay are extra concentrated in seats in massive cities), and since important numbers of such voters have switched between the Conservative and Labour events in methods which have been very influential in latest common elections.
A majority of the group of voters who voted Conservative in 2019 and Labour in 2024 supported go away within the 2016 referendum. The group of voters who voted Labour in 2024 however are actually expressing (through surveys) openness to voting Reform in a future election are extra socially conservative than different Labour voters (a trait related to supporting go away).
Labour’s want to carry onto such voters on the subsequent common election is more likely to proceed to imply they’re nervous about managing Britain’s relationship with the EU. For these causes, presently, the political circumstances don’t appear conducive for a extra formidable reset of UK-EU relations.
For extra info, see the authors’ accompanying examine, What do British Politicians Assume?
Notice: This text offers the views of the authors, not the place of EUROPP – European Politics and Coverage or the London College of Economics. Featured picture credit score: European Union
