George Simion and Nicușor Dan will contest the second spherical of Romania’s presidential election on 18 Might. Alexandru Damian writes the election might have profound implications for each Romania and Europe.
Romania is navigating one of the crucial intense and extended electoral durations in its latest historical past. In simply over a 12 months, the nation has confronted 4 rounds of nationwide elections (one later annulled) and one spherical of European elections. On 18 Might, Romanians will vote within the second spherical of the presidential election.
The runoff places Nicușor Dan, the centrist, pro-EU mayor of Bucharest, towards George Simion, a populist and deeply controversial determine who admires Viktor Orbán’s insurance policies, downplays the EU’s significance and vocally opposes Romania’s help for Ukraine. The latter has efficiently channelled a lot of the nation’s socio-economic frustration.
The stakes are profound: Romania stands at a crossroads, with the chance of sliding into the ranks of Europe’s intolerant regimes and threatening EU unity within the face of Russian aggression and an unpredictable second Trump presidency. Simion has ceaselessly portrayed himself as a neighborhood emissary of the MAGA motion in Romania.
At its core, the 18 Might election is a conflict of visions: one dedicated to European integration, democratic establishments and worldwide alliances, and one other rooted in isolationism, nationalism and a romanticised, and extremely distorted, imaginative and prescient of Romania’s previous.
The enchantment of the latter is fuelled by public disillusionment with political elites and a widespread mistrust of mainstream politics. As within the annulled 2024 election, Romania’s conventional main events, the Liberals and Social Democrats, did not ship a candidate to the runoff, regardless of working on a joint platform in 2025.
Europe isn’t the difficulty, disillusionment is
A lot of the talk in the previous couple of months has been diminished to a easy binary divide between the pro-EU/West and the anti-EU/pro-Russian sides. But polls persistently present that Romanians stay strongly supportive of EU and NATO membership. Based on the November 2024 Eurobarometer, 56% of Romanians belief the EU (above the 51% EU common), and nationwide surveys recommend that three in 4 Romanians view EU membership as helpful. 9 in ten oppose any notion of a “ROexit” or leaving NATO.
Nevertheless, this pro-European sentiment coexists with rising anger over home governance. Financial anxiousness looms giant: 40% of Romanians cite inflation and declining dwelling requirements as their prime issues. Belief in public authorities stays very low, pushed by the notion that Romania is ruled for the advantage of the few, not the various. After 5 years of cohabitation between the primary left and right-wing events, corruption efforts have stalled, inequality has deepened and political elites seem more and more disconnected.
This rising disillusionment has fuelled help for extremist and populist events, which now maintain over one-third of seats in Romania’s parliament. The rise of Călin Georgescu, the pro-Russian candidate within the annulled elections of 2024, and now Simion’s advance to the presidential runoff simply six months later, are the clearest indicators of this shift.
The 2025 electoral panorama has been additional difficult by renewed issues over overseas interference, notably from Russia. The disinformation ecosystem, already energetic in 2024, has continued into 2025, particularly on TikTok, Telegram, nameless Fb pages, and fringe media, which have amplified anti-EU, anti-Ukraine and conspiratorial content material.
Many of those messages now align immediately with George Simion’s rhetoric, echoing the narratives promoted by Georgescu. We’re additionally witnessing a surge in hate speech throughout all platforms, with each Georgescu and Simion amplifying hostile and inflammatory messages. Probably the most putting instance got here this week, when Simion printed a threatening weblog put up rhetorically asking what he would do with those that didn’t vote for him.
A harmful miscalculation?
What’s much more troubling is what number of voters appear to outright ignore the implications of a Simion presidency. For some, casting their poll for him is a type of protest: a rejection of the political institution reasonably than an endorsement of his platform. They imagine Romania will stay anchored within the EU no matter who wins. Others acknowledge the dangers, both politically or economically, however downplay them.
However Simion’s platform is just not symbolic. He has unfold disinformation concerning the EU, referred to as the Union a “non-entity”, threatened to nationalise overseas firms and promoted hate speech and conspiracy theories. This rhetoric is not going to go unnoticed and has real-world penalties.
Normalising it dangers alienating Romania from its European allies. It’s already having an financial influence and is deterring overseas funding. The warning indicators are already flashing: the Romanian leu has weakened to past 5 leu per euro, rates of interest are rising and borrowing prices are climbing. In the meantime, Romania faces the EU’s largest funds deficit (over 9%) and the best fee of inflation (above 5%), all with an underperforming and now fractured coalition authorities.
Simion’s surge within the first spherical
On 4 Might, Simion received the primary spherical of the presidential election with practically 41% of the vote, greater than he and his disqualified ally, Călin Georgescu, acquired mixed in 2024 (36%). He dominated in most rural and semi-urban areas and throughout all age teams, besides voters aged 18-29 and people residing in main cities. He additionally received a staggering share of the diaspora vote: 70-75% within the UK, Italy, Germany and Spain. Turnout reached 53%, with report diaspora participation. Simion declared he was stepping in for Georgescu (who’s now beneath prosecution and barred from working), and promised him a senior position in authorities, presumably even Prime Minister.
Crin Antonescu, the candidate of the governing coalition, got here in third with simply 20%, regardless of being supported by three main events. Rumours recommend that social gathering leaders and native officers, notably from the Social Democrats, quietly backed Simion. This mirrors 2024, when a number of Social Democrat mayors overtly admitted to covertly supporting Simion on the encouragement of social gathering management. Nicușor Dan, working on a pro-European platform and supporting support for Ukraine, narrowly edged out Antonescu with 21%, a shocking end result given his lack of backing from main events
What’s going to occur subsequent?
Simion enters the second spherical with a commanding lead, with greater than two million votes forward of Nicușor Dan. For the latter to shut the hole, he should obtain broad mobilisation not solely within the giant city centres, areas the place he has finished notably nicely, but additionally in smaller cities and rural areas the place Simion presently dominates.
He should additionally win over a bigger portion of the so-called anti-system vote and reach convincing bigger crowds of the influence of a pro-Simion vote. Nonetheless, the race is just not over. Professional-EU protests are gaining momentum, with tens of hundreds marching in Romania’s city centres. The primary televised debate was additionally broadly perceived as a victory for Nicușor Dan. A shift in voter sentiment is tough however not unattainable.
The implications of a Simion presidency are immense. Domestically, he might set up a Eurosceptic governing coalition, drawing help not solely from far-right events however probably from the Social Democrats, who’ve thus far refused to endorse any candidate.
A authorities within the mould of Viktor Orbán’s in Hungary would pressure Romania’s relationships with the EU, but additionally with Moldova and Ukraine, nations which have already banned Simion from entry on nationwide safety grounds. His election would fracture EU unity on Ukraine, probably undermine the bloc’s response to the US commerce battle and set Romania on a path of geopolitical isolation and financial instability.
A Nicușor Dan presidency wouldn’t be with out challenges. Whereas it will hold Romania firmly anchored within the EU and dedicated to European unity, the street forward can be removed from clean. Internally, the nation faces stormy climate because it should make tough financial changes and discover methods to ease mounting social tensions.
Observe: This text offers the views of the writer, not the place of EUROPP – European Politics and Coverage or the London Faculty of Economics. Featured picture credit score: LCV / Shutterstock.com
