NATO member states have dedicated to elevating defence and security-related spending from 2 to five p.c of GDP by 2035. But as Koen Frenken argues, the proposed spending is unlikely to assist create a extra autonomous, aggressive and sustainable Europe.
In the course of the current NATO summit in The Hague, member states agreed to a gradual improve in defence spending from 2 to five p.c of their GDP by 2035. This proportion is additional divided into 3.5 p.c for traditional defence expenditure and 1.5 p.c for supporting expenditures similar to funding essential infrastructures. The settlement implies that most member states should improve their defence expenditure enormously and in a brief time period.
A good portion of the upper defence expenditures will translate into increased investments in Analysis & Growth (R&D), as roughly 20 p.c of defence interprets into R&D. If we make the identical assumption for future spending on essential infrastructure, then the brand new NATO customary means a rise within the EU’s annual R&D expenditure from 2.3 p.c of GDP in 2024 to 2.9 p.c of GDP in 2035. This is able to imply a rise in R&D spending of roughly 100 billion (!) euros yearly, as a part of nationwide defence insurance policies somewhat than EU innovation coverage.
That’s an unprecedented, structural increase for innovation. Based on the Draghi report launched final 12 months, this impulse needs to be welcomed. Within the report, army R&D is highlighted as one of many major drivers of Europe’s future growth. Based on Draghi’s reasoning, increased R&D investments within the EU would vastly contribute to the three targets of innovation coverage: extra strategic autonomy, extra competitiveness and extra sustainability. Nonetheless, critical doubts exist about whether or not every of those coverage targets shall be achieved.
No extra autonomous
The brand new NATO customary was prompted by growing threats, notably from Russia, that have an effect on the safety of residents, firms and infrastructures. In that gentle, a robust funding increase is required to ensure safety.
Nonetheless, the place safety will improve, extra army R&D won’t essentially result in a strategically extra autonomous Europe. Particular person international locations will improve their technological capability, however with out higher European integration of army know-how, procurement markets and infrastructures, the EU as a complete won’t be able to function extra autonomously.
In truth, increased defence spending may additional improve the financial and political energy differentials between giant and small EU international locations, leading to a decrease potential for joint motion. As well as, it’s anticipated that the EU should depend on superior American intelligence and infrastructures for the deployment of army know-how for years to return. Now that American politics has confirmed to be unpredictable and unreliable, this sturdy interconnectedness is as a lot a further safety danger as it’s a army power.
No extra aggressive
The brand new NATO goal will certainly strengthen the competitiveness of the American financial system, whereas that of Europe might additional lag behind. The US is a frontrunner in army know-how, each when it comes to high quality and worth, which explains why a big share of EU defence spending will proceed to be mirrored within the American financial system.
When investing in digital infrastructures, European governments will seemingly proceed to decide on American firms, at the least within the quick time period, regardless of the structural violations of European rules by “Massive Tech”. As well as, because of the elevated investments in army R&D, governments might search for finances cuts for civilian R&D.
There’s a additional hazard of crowding out, when army firms and defence poach expertise from civilian sectors and army spending drives out different investments. Paradoxically, the NATO customary would possibly result in extra fragmentation and fewer integration of the European market if international locations favour their very own industries in tendering processes and R&D subsidies.
And positively no extra sustainable
Lastly, if we have a look at the results of the elevated defence spending for the bold environmental targets of the European Union, there may be much more motive for scepticism. Proponents of the brand new excessive NATO customary have offered it as a win-win state of affairs for safety coverage and sustainability coverage.
By investing much more in clear know-how similar to wind and solar energy, member states will set up power independence from international locations outdoors the EU extra shortly. Furthermore, investments and requirements for a round financial system will even guarantee a decrease import dependency on (essential) uncooked supplies and a discount in air pollution and greenhouse gases.
What stays missed within the dialogue, nonetheless, is that the defence equipment is principally depending on fossil gas power and infrastructure. The extra defence expenditure due to this fact locks in using fossil fuels. And when weapons are literally deployed, the results are sometimes disastrous for residents and for the setting.
A know-how push that doesn’t ship
The European Union is dealing with an nearly existential problem. Its diplomatic function within the international governance of human rights, commerce and environmental coverage is now being substituted for a extra sturdy NATO pact. Nonetheless, this new army focus may battle with the targets of innovation coverage and additional improve tensions inside the Union.
The age-old technique of pursuing a “know-how push”, which is central to the Draghi report, doesn’t routinely work with a sudden improve in army spending. If no further situations will be imposed on this army spending, it’s removed from clear that it’ll result in extra autonomy, competitiveness and sustainability. Certainly, the other could be achieved.
A broader idea of safety is required through which the strategic (digital) autonomy of the EU, diplomatic relations outdoors NATO and the sustainability of the planet are central. This new conceptualisation affords an express framework to articulate further situations required for defence spending.
Circumstances would possibly embrace native content material necessities, circularity, sustainable power, digital rules and human rights, to call a couple of. Such a framework is important to make sure the big improve in defence spending is in step with European values and able to meaningfully bettering the strategic autonomy of the EU, the financial prosperity of its inhabitants and the sustainability of our planet.
A special model of this text was beforehand revealed in Dutch.
Observe: This text offers the views of the writer, not the place of EUROPP – European Politics and Coverage or the London Faculty of Economics. Featured picture credit score: European Union
